Explanation of Predictability Index Value Calculation:
|
|
|
|
|
|
Base Index Value (all horses start at this level) = 90
|
|
|
|
|
|
Deductions are made if the following “uncertainties” exist…..
|
Value
|
|
|
|
1 |
If the horse’s most recent performance was in a qualifying race |
-10 |
2 |
If the horse has not raced in over 21 days |
-10 |
3 |
If the horse broke stride (without interference) in its last start |
-10 |
4 |
If the horse’s last start was on a different track than today’s race |
-10 |
5 |
If the horse’s last start was on a track for which there is limited statistical data |
-10 |
6 |
If the horse has one or more recent lines which are considered poor performance |
-10 |
7 |
If the horse does not have at least two recent lines which are considered “clean” and useable |
-10 |
8 |
If the daily track condition variant of a previous race was estimated using track statistical data |
-10 |
9 |
If it is a trotter. Trotters are statistically less predictable than pacers. |
-10 |
|
|
|
|
Minimum Total Predictability Index |
0 |
|
Maximum Predictability Index (no deductions) |
90 |
|
|
|
|
Best Bets
|
100 |
|
When the point spread between the top pick and the second pick exceeds a certain amount (generally 30 points) |
|
|
combined with several other factors (one of which is that the horse has a base adjusted index of 90 (80 if a trotter) |
|
|
then we add 10 Points (20 if a trotter) bringing the total PRE to 100! This is considered a highly reliable race to bet!! |