Explanation of Predictability Index Value Calculation:
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Base Index Value (all horses start at this level) = 90
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Deductions are made if the following “uncertainties” exist…..
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Value
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| 1 |
If the horse’s most recent performance was in a qualifying race |
-10 |
| 2 |
If the horse has not raced in over 21 days |
-10 |
| 3 |
If the horse broke stride (without interference) in its last start |
-10 |
| 4 |
If the horse’s last start was on a different track than today’s race |
-10 |
| 5 |
If the horse’s last start was on a track for which there is limited statistical data |
-10 |
| 6 |
If the horse has one or more recent lines which are considered poor performance |
-10 |
| 7 |
If the horse does not have at least two recent lines which are considered “clean” and useable |
-10 |
| 8 |
If the daily track condition variant of a previous race was estimated using track statistical data |
-10 |
| 9 |
If it is a trotter. Trotters are statistically less predictable than pacers. |
-10 |
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Minimum Total Predictability Index |
0 |
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Maximum Predictability Index (no deductions) |
90 |
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Best Bets
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100 |
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When the point spread between the top pick and the second pick exceeds a certain amount (generally 30 points) |
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combined with several other factors (one of which is that the horse has a base adjusted index of 90 (80 if a trotter) |
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then we add 10 Points (20 if a trotter) bringing the total PRE to 100! This is considered a highly reliable race to bet!! |
