Predictability Index (harness)

Explanation of Predictability Index Value Calculation:

Base Index Value (all horses start at this level) = 90

Deductions are made if the following “uncertainties” exist…..


1 If the horse’s most recent performance was in a qualifying race -10
2 If the horse has not raced in over 21 days -10
3 If the horse broke stride (without interference) in its last start -10
4 If the horse’s last start was on a different track than today’s race -10
5 If the horse’s last start was on a track for which there is limited statistical data -10
6 If the horse has one or more recent lines which are considered poor performance -10
7 If the horse does not have at least two recent lines which are considered “clean” and useable -10
8 If the daily track condition variant of a previous race was estimated using track statistical data -10
9 If it is a trotter. Trotters are statistically less predictable than pacers. -10
Minimum Total Predictability Index 0
Maximum Predictability Index (no deductions) 90

Best Bets

When the point spread between the top pick and the second pick exceeds a certain amount (generally 30 points)
combined with several other factors (one of which is that the horse has a base adjusted index of 90 (80 if a trotter)
then we add 10 Points (20 if a trotter) bringing the total PRE to 100! This is considered a highly reliable race to bet!!
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